Submitted and Written by IVCBA Member, David Vomund

An old chestnut among investment advisers is that one should save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist.  Pessimists would have more cash today and short-term bonds.  Optimists always like stocks and on occasion bonds.  They like bonds now.    

First, the stock market.  Stocks have been strong, maybe too strong.  This year through last Friday the S&P 500 was up 7.4 percent without even a two-percent pullback.  That’s unsustainable.

Even in the really good years, one should expect a correction (a pullback of 10 percent or more) sometime along the way.  Since 1928, the S&P 500 has finished the year up 10 percent or more 55 times. In 23 of those 55 years there was a correction.  Using the same time frame, the stock market had yearly gains of 20 percent or more on 34 occasions.  Of those 34 years there was a correction sometime during the year about half the time.  Bottom line:  even in the best years investors should expect double-digit percentage pullbacks.  This year should be no different.

Now to bonds and preferred stocks.  Very quietly bonds and preferreds are rallying.  Last Friday the iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF (PFF), which yields 6.5 percent, reached a one-year high.  It is up 4.5 percent in 2024 excluding dividends.  Why the rally?  Investors have been locking in attractive yields knowing that the rate hike cycle has ended and rates will be cut.  

Warren Buffett once wrote, “if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”  Translation:  Successful investors anticipate tomorrow’s headlines.  Today, people are happy to receive five percent in risk-free money market funds.  But most expect the Fed to begin lowering rates in the June and again in the second half.  Will investors still be comfortable when money market yields fall to 4.75 percent?  How about 4.5 percent?  That’s why money is moving into stocks and bonds.  Those who wait will pay a higher price for stocks and bonds.

Money has to go somewhere and the best asset class — stocks — will continue to attract its share.  That alone is reason to expect higher prices ahead for the market.  But there are stocks and there are stocks.  The big-cap tech stocks, until recently the leaders, are vulnerable due to their valuations and investor over-optimism.  That’s why the S&P 400 Mid-Cap ETF (MDY) and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) have begun to outperform.  The broader market is finally participating.  That’s a good sign.  

David Vomund is an Incline Village-based Independent Investment Advisor.  Information is found at www.VomundInvestments.com or by calling 775-832-8555.  Clients hold the positions mentioned in this article.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Consult your financial advisor before purchasing any security.

Originally published in the Tahoe Daily Tribune on 02/24/24, Submitted

INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. – Clean Up The Lake, a 501(c)3 environmental nonprofit, completed their first SCUBA enabled pilot research project in Echo Lakes, California to evaluate litter accumulations and survey for aquatic invasive species (AIS). 

In a positive turn of events, results from this work show that Echo Lakes, which are located just south of Lake Tahoe near the community of Meyers, show no signs of the extensive litter problems that exist in neighboring lakes. While litter was found during the project, Lower Echo Lake was significantly less littered than other lakes in the region like Lake Tahoe, Fallen Leaf and Donner Lake.

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PHOTO CREDIT: CLEAN UP THE LAKE

Originally Published in the Tahoe Daily Tribune on 03/08/2024, Submitted

INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. – At a special meeting on Wednesday, March 6, 2024, the Incline Village General Improvement District Board of Trustees approved a 2-year contract with Bobby Magee to become the new District General Manager. Magee has worked for the District for the past eight months as the Interim Finance Director and therefore has a deep understanding of the District and its needs.

Magee started his career in government with San Joaquin County as the Assistant Fleet Manager, before moving into the County Administrator’s Office, which is the executive office of the County. For almost 10 years, he was assigned to an executive position, in charge of the oversight of various County divisions including Parks and Recreation, Public Works (utilities, water and wastewater) and Special Districts (much like a Nevada GID), where he provided significant operational and fiscal oversight to each division. While in this role, Magee managed a budget of over $500 million.

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Originally Published in the Moonshine Ink on 03/01/2024, Submitted

The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency is encouraging public review and feedback on key transportation plans to improve Lake Tahoe’s bicycle and pedestrian system and encourage public involvement in transportation improvements. The Active Transportation Plan focuses on connecting all methods of travel that do not rely entirely on a car, like walking, biking, and rolling.

Transportation impacts are the leading source of greenhouse gas emissions globally and a major source of nitrogen pollutants at Lake Tahoe. Excess nitrogen feeds the growth of algae and harms the lake’s famed clarity. Reducing vehicle use and improving safety in the Tahoe Basin is a top priority for TRPA, communities, and partner agencies, according to the agency.

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Originally Published in the Tahoe Daily Tribune, 03/06/2024, Submitted

GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA, Calif./Nev. – The approximately four-day storm that started on leap day provided enough snow to push area snowpacks just above normal for the first time this winter. The storm outranked all four-day storms since 1981, with only three having a higher four day gain than this blizzard. 

“Over the years there have certainly been longer duration events or back-to-back storms that caused far greater snow water increases,” but the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service explains the rate of increase over just four days indicates the storm intensity for this blizzard “was among the strongest on record.” 

It pushed the Lake Tahoe Basin snowpack to 101% of the median, and Truckee Basin to 105%. These snowpacks in the eastern Sierras have come a long way since the 44% pack on Jan. 1, the sixth lowest for that date since 1981, but the service says it still has a small ways to go to reach normal spring time peaks.

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Originally Published in the Tahoe Daily Tribune 03/05/24, Submitted

INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. – Clean Up The Lake, the environmental non-profit responsible for the 72-mile cleanup of Lake Tahoe, has recently completed a two-year monitoring effort on the lake. CUTL conservation dive teams revisited 20 litter hotspots in the 0 to 25-foot depths along the Nevada shoreline that were identified during the 72-mile cleanup of Lake Tahoe in 2021.

The primary purpose of this project was to survey these nearshore zones along the Nevada shoreline to observe changes in litter accumulation and perform surveillance for aquatic invasive species (AIS) that may have progressed since 2021. By revisiting places that were already cleaned, the data collected helped determine the status of litter accumulation in Lake Tahoe, its rate of change since the 72-mile cleanup, and the efficacy of CUTL!s SCUBA-enabled cleanup methodology.

A secondary purpose of this monitoring project was to perform 40 additional deep dive surveys between the 35 and 70-foot depths near each hot spot location to better assess litter loads and AIS at deeper depths.

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Originally published by Moonshine Ink 02/08/24, Written by Alex Hoeft

The recent tragedy of an inbound avalanche fatality at Palisades Tahoe is a solemn reminder of the natural disaster possibilities in our region. Moonshine Ink sends many thoughts of comfort to the family of Kenneth Kidd.

With Kidd and many snow recreators in mind, this month’s You Asked. They Answered. is focused on avalanche education and awareness.

Since the winter of 2009/10, there have been 18 inbound avalanche fatalities across the U.S. (compared to 366 avalanche fatalities in total) as of press time.

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